Sony and Microsoft had better think long and hard before pricing the next generation of consoles at $1000, as one prominent industry analyst predicts that could result in a huge drop in sales compared to the current generation.
According to a new report from Ampere Analysis (via VGC), there is a specific set of circumstances which seem entirely plausible that could see combined PS6 and Xbox Project Helix sales plummet 38% over five years compared to PS5 and Xbox Series X sales over the same time period. Those circumstances are A) The next-gen consoles launch with a base price of $1000, and B) they’re “conventionally designed, incrementally improved” over the current generation, which is typically the deal these days.
In that scenario, the analyst predicts Sony and Microsoft would see a massive drop in adoption rates as well as a decrease in consumer spending that could negatively impact the overall console games and services market by 12%.
With PS5 Pros going for $900, trade wars ongoing, and RAM shortages showing no signs of improving, a $1000 PS6 isn’t such an outlandish prediction. And yet, another industry analyst has gone on the record to say consoles that expensive could price out buyers “quite significantly.”
The folks at Ampere reckon Sony and Microsoft could avoid that problem in several ways, either by delaying the start of the next generation until component costs go down, keeping prices low through “heavier hardware subsidies, new monetisation models, more aggressive digital content strategies and optimised sales channels,” or by going in another direction entirely and “substantially” innovating in a way that doesn’t rely on “graphical improvement.” VGC cites the Nintendo Wii as an example of this, trading raw hardware power for form factor innovation.
Considering the Xbox Series S launched for $299 less than six years ago, it’s staggering to consider a successor that costs more than triple that as the cost of basic living necessities like groceries, gas, and housing remains elevated. I’m no analyst, but it’s easy to see how people living in today’s economy would stay out of a $1000 console generation until things settle down.