In the prestige TV streaming era, it’s not uncommon for new seasons of the biggest shows to take upwards of two years to hit screens. And a new report has confirmed what we all knew deep down: lengthy delays between new TV seasons leads to massive drops in viewership.
The report comes from data analytics company Luminate (h/t DiscussingFilm), who crunched the numbers on several of the biggest streaming releases, including Stranger Things season 5 and Wednesday season 2. The report concludes that “long breaks between seasons usually leads to audience shrinkage for hit series.” A long hiatus is defined by Luminate as anything over 18 months between seasons.
Among the hardest hit shows, according to Luminate, were The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power season 2, which saw a 57% dip in viewership when it landed two years after its debut season; Wednesday season 2, which saw a 59% drop upon releasing 2.75 years after the first season; and even Stranger Things season 5, which, despite being the final season, saw audience figures drop 23% when it finally arrived 3.5 years after season 4. In contrast, The Pitt season 2 saw viewership soar 132% when it released 12 months after its initial run, but that was a critically acclaimed breakout series.
The long breaks between seasons can sometimes be attributed to behind-the-scenes turmoil (which seems to have been the case with Severance season 2, though that turned out OK), but more often than not it’s simply the reality of producing big-budget shows in the prestige TV era, with audiences now expecting movie-quality visuals that require movie-length production timelines. This is particularly acute for effects-heavy shows like The Rings of Power and Stranger Things.
The binge release model can also have a deleterious effect, as despite inflating first-week numbers, Luminate points out that “binge-release viewership tends to decay quickly, whereas a weekly-release hit can remain on the charts week after week.” There is a silver lining in the long breaks between seasons for streamers, though. Luminate’s numbers point to long delays “supercharging” catch-up viewing, as audiences capitalize on the extra time to watch (or re-watch) previous seasons, ahead of new episodes.
Following another 2-year break between seasons, The Rings of Power season 3 returns this November and is set to tackle one of Middle-earth’s biggest moments: the forging of the One Ring. The Rings of Power season 4 is reportedly already in the works, perhaps in an effort to speed up production and reduce the the wait for new seasons.
For more, check out our guide to the best Netflix shows, or look ahead to the new TV shows hitting screens this year.